Latvian intelligence has received indications that Moscow may be preparing a military “provocation” against the Baltic states or Poland, The Guardian reported.
According to the assessment, Russia is not currently capable of opening a second front but could instead resort to hybrid operations or limited military actions, including missile or drone attacks, to pressure NATO members over their support for Ukraine.
Reportedly, the objective would also be to probe NATO’s collective response, particularly the willingness of the US and other allies to defend smaller member states such as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
According to The Guardian, the Kremlin could seek to alter the course of the Ukraine conflict through escalation elsewhere if its offensive continues to stall, particularly as Kyiv has demonstrated the ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory, including near Moscow.
The assessment also comes as Moscow has reportedly increased pressure on Minsk to expand its role in supporting Russian military operations, while Ukraine has threatened to target Russian-linked drone relay infrastructure in Belarus.
Security Concerns on NATO’s Eastern Flank
Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has already been accused of sabotage and covert activity across Europe.
Cross-border drone incidents have also become increasingly frequent in recent months.
Russian and Ukrainian drones have repeatedly crossed into the airspace of neighboring Baltic and Eastern European countries, often crashing after their navigation systems were disrupted by electronic warfare.
Last September, Russian decoy drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO to scramble fighter aircraft and issue shelter warnings in parts of eastern Poland.
Concerns have also extended to critical infrastructure.
Following a series of suspected sabotage incidents involving undersea power and telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea, NATO launched a dedicated monitoring mission last year as Western officials warned of an escalating Russian hybrid campaign against the alliance.
